Economy / Puerto RicoJune 2013 | Macroeconomic Forecasts
BMI View: Consumer price inflation in Puerto Rico declined sharply from 1.7% year-on-year (y-o-y) in March to 0.5% y-o-y in April. We expect demand-side inflationary pressures to increase modestly through 2013, as the Puerto Rican economy continues to recover from a five-year recession that ended in 2012. As such, we forecast inflation to reach 2.5% y-o-y by end-2013. However, the recent drop in inflation reaffirms our view for an uneven recovery, marked by sluggish private consumption.
| 2011 | 2012 | Latest Period | 2013f | 2014f | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population, mn 3 | 3.7 | e | 3.7 | e | - | - | 3.7 | 3.7 | ||||
| Nominal GDP, US$bn 1,4 | 61.6 | 59.3 | - | - | 61.6 | 67.1 | ||||||
| Real GDP growth, % change y-o-y 2,4 | -1.6 | 0.5 | - | - | 1.3 | 1.4 | ||||||
| Consumer price index, % y-o-y, eop 5 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | Apr | 2.5 | 3.0 | ||||||
| Exchange rate USD/US$, eop 6 | 1.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 1.00 | 1.00 | ||||||
| Goods exports, US$bn 4 | 57.6 | 58.8 | 10.0 | Jan-Feb | 61.7 | 65.4 | ||||||
| Goods imports, US$bn 4 | 44.3 | 46.1 | 7.2 | Jan-Feb | 47.1 | 48.1 | ||||||
| Balance of trade in goods, US$bn 4 | 13.3 | 12.7 | 2.7 | Jan-Feb | 14.6 | 17.4 | ||||||
| Current account balance, US$bn 4 | 3.4 | -0.7 | e | - | - | -0.3 | 0.2 | |||||
| Current account balance, % of GDP 7 | 5.5 | -1.2 | e | - | - | -0.4 | 0.3 |
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