Friday, June 21, 2013

Economy / Puerto RicoJune 2013 | Macroeconomic Forecasts

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Economy / Puerto RicoJune 2013 | Macroeconomic Forecasts
BMI View: Consumer price inflation in Puerto Rico declined sharply from 1.7% year-on-year (y-o-y) in March to 0.5% y-o-y in April. We expect demand-side inflationary pressures to increase modestly through 2013, as the Puerto Rican economy continues to recover from a five-year recession that ended in 2012. As such, we forecast inflation to reach 2.5% y-o-y by end-2013. However, the recent drop in inflation reaffirms our view for an uneven recovery, marked by sluggish private consumption.
20112012Latest Period2013f2014f
Population, mn 33.7e3.7e--3.73.7
Nominal GDP, US$bn 1,461.659.3--61.667.1
Real GDP growth, % change y-o-y 2,4-1.60.5--1.31.4
Consumer price index, % y-o-y, eop 53.31.20.5Apr2.53.0
Exchange rate USD/US$, eop 61.001.00--1.001.00
Goods exports, US$bn 457.658.810.0Jan-Feb61.765.4
Goods imports, US$bn 444.346.17.2Jan-Feb47.148.1
Balance of trade in goods, US$bn 413.312.72.7Jan-Feb14.617.4
Current account balance, US$bn 43.4-0.7e---0.30.2
Current account balance, % of GDP 75.5-1.2e---0.40.3

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