Friday, June 21, 2013

Economy / Puerto RicoJune 2013 | Macroeconomic Forecasts

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Economy / Puerto RicoJune 2013 | Macroeconomic Forecasts
BMI View: Consumer price inflation in Puerto Rico declined sharply from 1.7% year-on-year (y-o-y) in March to 0.5% y-o-y in April. We expect demand-side inflationary pressures to increase modestly through 2013, as the Puerto Rican economy continues to recover from a five-year recession that ended in 2012. As such, we forecast inflation to reach 2.5% y-o-y by end-2013. However, the recent drop in inflation reaffirms our view for an uneven recovery, marked by sluggish private consumption.
20112012Latest Period2013f2014f
Population, mn 33.7e3.7e--3.73.7
Nominal GDP, US$bn 1,461.659.3--61.667.1
Real GDP growth, % change y-o-y 2,4-1.60.5--1.31.4
Consumer price index, % y-o-y, eop 53.31.20.5Apr2.53.0
Exchange rate USD/US$, eop 61.001.00--1.001.00
Goods exports, US$bn 457.658.810.0Jan-Feb61.765.4
Goods imports, US$bn 444.346.17.2Jan-Feb47.148.1
Balance of trade in goods, US$bn 413.312.72.7Jan-Feb14.617.4
Current account balance, US$bn 43.4-0.7e---0.30.2
Current account balance, % of GDP 75.5-1.2e---0.40.3

The Star: PR Food Stamp Benefi ts Threatened by U.S. House Amendments

The Star: PR Food Stamp Benefi ts Threatened by U.S. House Amendments

By EVA LLORENS VELEZ

Puerto Rico Federal Affairs (PRFAA)
Administrator Juan Eugenio Hernández Mayoral blasted Resident
Commissioner Pedro Pierluisi on Wednesday for failing to stop U.S. House Republicans from amending the Farm Bill
to cut food stamp benefi ts to thousands
of Puerto Ricans.
The House planned to begin voting
Wednesday on 103 amendments to the
bill, including a Democratic proposal to
eliminate $2 billion in cuts in the $80 billion-a-year food stamp or Supplemental
Nutritional Assistance Program (SNAP).
In Puerto Rico the program is known as
PAN by its Spanish acronym.
The bill also would make it more
diffi cult for some to qualify for food
stamps, and would expand some agriculture subsidies and set policy for rural
development programs.
House Republicans included in the
Farm Bill an amendment that would strip
Puerto Ricans under SNAP from 25 percent of the money they get in cash. Another Republican lawmaker included an
amendment to the Farm Bill that would
lower the $2 billion in SNAP benefi ts received by Puerto Rico overall.
“The resident commissioner, who
has the power to eliminate those amendments and right in his own territory, failed to prevent this,” Hernández Mayoral
said.
Unlike the Puerto Rico Legislature,
which allows lawmakers to amend bills
on the fl oor, Congress imposes deadlines
upon lawmakers to submit amendments
to legislation. The deadline to submit
amendments to the Farm Bill was Monday at 2 p.m, Hernández Mayoral said.
That means no amendments can be submitted during debates on the bill.
“If you check the congressional
record, Pierluisi did not propose any
amendments to the bill. He proposed
amendments to stop plagues on coffee
plants and other things, but not to stop
the cuts to SNAP,” the PRFAA administrator said. “Puerto Ricans must know
that Pierluisi stood by and did nothing.”
Many conservatives have said the
food stamp cuts do not go far enough,
while liberals have argued against any
reductions, contending the House plan
could take as many as 2 million recipients off the rolls. The cuts are about 3
percent of the program.
An amendment by Rep. Jim McGovern (D-Mass.) and other Democrats
would eliminate The SNAP cuts and take
the money from farm subsidies instead.
An estimated 47 million Americans,
or one in seven, use food stamps.
A different version of the bill was
approved by the Senate recently that
does not include the amendments that
affect SNAP benefi ciaries in Puerto Rico.
If the House passes its bill, it will go to a
conference committee that will work on
a single version of the bill.
Hernández Mayoral said he is already working with senators to ensure
the fi nal version of the bill does not contain the House amendments.
“We are working with senators
and one of the senators wrote a letter to
make sure everyone keeps an eye on the
House amendments,” Hernández Mayoral said.
The amendments come days after
several U.S. newspapers complained
that a huge number of Puerto Ricans are
receiving SNAP benefi ts at the expense
of U.S. taxpayers.
Pierluisi reportedly said the amendments were put in the bill that will go
for a vote and that the Republicans have
the votes to defeat any amendments that
seek to reverse it. So the best strategy is
to continue the efforts in the Senate, the
resident commissioner said.

The San Juan Daily Star Review

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