Wednesday, April 11, 2012
Predicting the Latino Vote: How One Key Demographic Could Reshape the 2012 Campaign | Swampland | TIME.com
Predicting the Latino Vote: How One Key Demographic Could Reshape the 2012 Campaign | Swampland | TIME.com
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The Latino vote will matter in the 2012 election. So say Republicans and Democrats, and even the cover of TIME magazine. But just how much it will matter is not clear at this point. Too many factors remain fluid. We don’t know how close races in key states will be, what the Latino and non-Latino turnout will be, or how the vote will split between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney.
But we can make some pretty good back-of-the-envelope guestimations, which is exactly what the political consultants inside the Obama and Romney camps have been doing.
On Monday, I participated in an Aspen Institute panel about the Latino vote in 2012, which was broadcast on C-Span, and I tried to boil down the impact of Latinos to a few simple numbers.
(PHOTOS: Election 2012: Faces of the Latino Vote)
In national elections since the early 1990s, Republicans have had a floor of about 20% among Latinos, a group that includes a large population of Cuban Americans in Florida. Democrats have always won at least 55%. So about 25% of the Latino vote is at play in the middle. (In one survey, Romney now polls at 14% among Latinos, though that poll, for the moment, is an outlier.)
So when we consider the impact of Latinos in 2012, we are looking at a swing between about a 20% vote share for Republicans and a 45% vote share. The question that follows is how much of an impact this swing will have on the final electoral college results. The polls that really matter are state-by-state surveys, not national ones.
Latinos are expected to make up about one in ten voters this year, but many of those votes, in big states like Texas, California and New York, will have no impact on the electoral college, since those states are not in play for Romney. But Latinos can have a big impact on the outcomes in Colorado, Arizona, Nevada and Florida, and a marginal impact in states like North Carolina and Ohio, all of which both parties will contest.
The polling firm Latino Decisions, which is the gold standard of Latino-American polling, recently put out a report on the impact of Latinos in these states. They found that for every eight points that Republicans lose among Latinos in states like Colorado and Nevada, the party needs to pick up another single point among non-Latino voters in order to not lose ground statewide.
(PHOTOS: Being Latino in Arizona)
For example, if Obama gets 69% of the Latino vote in Nevada (ceding to Romney just 31%), then Obama can still win the state by capturing only 47% of the non-Latino vote (ceding to Romney 53%). If Obama gets a little more than 63% of the Latino vote, then he needs to get 48% of the non-Latino vote. Here is the chart:
There are many caveats to this formula, but it provides a helpful outline of the landscape. The difference between Democrats winning 80% of Latinos and winning 45% of Latinos in a state like Nevada corresponds to about three points in the non-Latino vote. In other words, we are talking about a field goal, not a touchdown. But in states like Nevada and Colorado, which have a history of hosting close presidential contests, that may be enough.
(MORE: Why Latino Voters Will Swing the 2012 Election)
These numbers also help explain the different approaches that the Romney and Obama campaigns have taken to the election. With its vast network of staffers and year-long grace period to prepare, the Obama campaign is pursuing a strategy that focuses on deploying specialized teams, which are reaching out to constituent groups, building an enormous ground game and making a huge investment in technology, from iPhone apps (which don’t always work) to new data gathering programs. For the most part, these factors will only impact the outcome if the final score is close enough to be decided by a field goal. Romney, who has fewer resources after a bruising primary, is building a campaign in the expectation that the 2012 will be yet another anti-incumbent wave cycle that will hinge upon the economy. In other words, it will be won with touchdowns, not field goals.
As the Romney campaign rejiggers for the general election, there will be a pivot, at least in tone, to appeal to Latino voters. The tough talk–advocating “self-deportation” and calling Arizona a “model” for the nation–will almost surely give way to more positive talk about the need for fair reforms to immigration law. And Romney is not going to completely cede the ground game or the technological arms race to Obama. But the underlying difference outlook is almost sure to remain up until Election Day. One team will be counting on its kicker, the other is betting it won’t need one.
PHOTOS: Political Pictures of the Week, March 31-April 6
Read more: http://swampland.time.com/2012/04/11/predicting-the-latino-vote-in-2012/#ixzz1rk5rpkLA
Predicting the Latino Vote in 2012
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But we can make some pretty good back-of-the-envelope guestimations, which is exactly what the political consultants inside the Obama and Romney camps have been doing.
On Monday, I participated in an Aspen Institute panel about the Latino vote in 2012, which was broadcast on C-Span, and I tried to boil down the impact of Latinos to a few simple numbers.
(PHOTOS: Election 2012: Faces of the Latino Vote)
In national elections since the early 1990s, Republicans have had a floor of about 20% among Latinos, a group that includes a large population of Cuban Americans in Florida. Democrats have always won at least 55%. So about 25% of the Latino vote is at play in the middle. (In one survey, Romney now polls at 14% among Latinos, though that poll, for the moment, is an outlier.)
So when we consider the impact of Latinos in 2012, we are looking at a swing between about a 20% vote share for Republicans and a 45% vote share. The question that follows is how much of an impact this swing will have on the final electoral college results. The polls that really matter are state-by-state surveys, not national ones.
Latinos are expected to make up about one in ten voters this year, but many of those votes, in big states like Texas, California and New York, will have no impact on the electoral college, since those states are not in play for Romney. But Latinos can have a big impact on the outcomes in Colorado, Arizona, Nevada and Florida, and a marginal impact in states like North Carolina and Ohio, all of which both parties will contest.
The polling firm Latino Decisions, which is the gold standard of Latino-American polling, recently put out a report on the impact of Latinos in these states. They found that for every eight points that Republicans lose among Latinos in states like Colorado and Nevada, the party needs to pick up another single point among non-Latino voters in order to not lose ground statewide.
(PHOTOS: Being Latino in Arizona)
For example, if Obama gets 69% of the Latino vote in Nevada (ceding to Romney just 31%), then Obama can still win the state by capturing only 47% of the non-Latino vote (ceding to Romney 53%). If Obama gets a little more than 63% of the Latino vote, then he needs to get 48% of the non-Latino vote. Here is the chart:
There are many caveats to this formula, but it provides a helpful outline of the landscape. The difference between Democrats winning 80% of Latinos and winning 45% of Latinos in a state like Nevada corresponds to about three points in the non-Latino vote. In other words, we are talking about a field goal, not a touchdown. But in states like Nevada and Colorado, which have a history of hosting close presidential contests, that may be enough.
(MORE: Why Latino Voters Will Swing the 2012 Election)
These numbers also help explain the different approaches that the Romney and Obama campaigns have taken to the election. With its vast network of staffers and year-long grace period to prepare, the Obama campaign is pursuing a strategy that focuses on deploying specialized teams, which are reaching out to constituent groups, building an enormous ground game and making a huge investment in technology, from iPhone apps (which don’t always work) to new data gathering programs. For the most part, these factors will only impact the outcome if the final score is close enough to be decided by a field goal. Romney, who has fewer resources after a bruising primary, is building a campaign in the expectation that the 2012 will be yet another anti-incumbent wave cycle that will hinge upon the economy. In other words, it will be won with touchdowns, not field goals.
As the Romney campaign rejiggers for the general election, there will be a pivot, at least in tone, to appeal to Latino voters. The tough talk–advocating “self-deportation” and calling Arizona a “model” for the nation–will almost surely give way to more positive talk about the need for fair reforms to immigration law. And Romney is not going to completely cede the ground game or the technological arms race to Obama. But the underlying difference outlook is almost sure to remain up until Election Day. One team will be counting on its kicker, the other is betting it won’t need one.
PHOTOS: Political Pictures of the Week, March 31-April 6
Read other related stories about this:
- GOP sees chance to win over Hispanic votersThe Miami Herald
- Republicans to Lose 2012 Latino Vote, Democratic Mayor SaysBloomberg
Read more: http://swampland.time.com/2012/04/11/predicting-the-latino-vote-in-2012/#ixzz1rk5rpkLA
World News Review - 12:43 PM 4/11/2012 - Mike Nova's starred items
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Ken Livingstone blubbing while watching his own party election broadcast is the latest in a long, but often ignoble, tradition
Do tears betray an unforgiveable weakness or cast our leaders in a refreshingly human light? Ken Livingstone turning on the waterworks while watching his own party election broadcast will probably not endear him to London voters – yourself is not the most popular cause to cry for – but at least red-eyed Red Ken was bang on trend.
Male politicians have rushed to bare their snivellingly sensitive souls in recent times. When Nick Clegg revealed he "regularly" sobbed while listening to music, political bruiser Ed Balls trumped him by boasting of weeping when watching the "incredibly emotional" Antiques Roadshow.
But it would be wrong to think of tears as a pitifully self-indulgent symbol of modern times. Abraham Lincoln skilfully employed tears in his oratory and, as befitted someone frequently tired and emotional, Winston Churchill loved a good blub in Parliament. The Iron Lady was made of sterner stuff until her departure from Downing Street was poignantly illustrated by the image of Margaret Thatcher indulging in a little lip-quivering in the prime ministerial limo.
Women leaders are usually damned if they do cry and damned if they don't. Aides at first feared that Hillary Clinton's tearful exchange with a voter after losing the Iowa primary to Barack Obama in 2008 would damage her but it actually played well, particularly with women voters. Tears (and implausible denials) can be emasculating, however: Edmund Muskie's presidential campaign was torpedoed in 1972 when he responded to newspaper criticisms of his wife by apparently breaking down in tears. He insisted they were melted snowflakes on his cheeks.
Every US president since Reagan has deployed a strategic tear or two (a welling-up may go down well with voters but bawling or howling is too temperamental) but it was Hillary's husband who really reinvented crying. Blubbing Bill wasn't averse to a bit of fakery as well, turning laughter into tears when he realised he was being filmed at a funeral.
Despite taking lessons from Clinton, Tony Blair was less comfortable with public tears. It was said he cried when told of the death of Dr David Kelly and Blair subsequently claimed he shed "many" tears over Iraq war dead. His alpha-male communications chief Alastair Campbell also choked back a whimper when he defended his former boss over Iraq on the Andrew Marr Show.
Gordon Brown welled up when talking on TV about the death of his baby daughter, Jennifer, but coming before the 2010 general election, this genuine display of emotion from a prime minister encumbered by his stiff image was greeted with widespread cynicism.
The most profitable political tears are probably those shed when a politician is confronted with a tragedy that is not the demise of their own careers. Livingstone has at least mastered this art in the past: he cried in public when he apologised for the slave trade during his time as mayor of London.
An Indian mother weeps after her child died following abuse by her husband who had wanted a son.
Debra Tate hopes that Wednesday is the last time she has to walk into a prison and argue to parole officials that Charles Manson should not be freed.
World News Review - Mike Nova's starred items - 12:43 PM 4/11/2012
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The US government has filed a lawsuit against five publishers and the country's most valuable firm Apple accusing them of price fixing in the e-book market.
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Drugs giant Johnson & Johnson is ordered by a US judge to pay $1.1bn for downplaying the risks involved in taking its anti-psychotic drug Risperdal.
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President Obama explains why we need the Buffett Rule, which make our tax system more fair by ensuring that people who make more than $1 million a year pay at least the same share of their income in taxes as middle-class families.
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April 10, 2012 - A European court rules that Britain can extradite five terror suspects to the United States.
via The Guardian World News by Patrick Barkham on 4/11/12
Do tears betray an unforgiveable weakness or cast our leaders in a refreshingly human light? Ken Livingstone turning on the waterworks while watching his own party election broadcast will probably not endear him to London voters – yourself is not the most popular cause to cry for – but at least red-eyed Red Ken was bang on trend.
Male politicians have rushed to bare their snivellingly sensitive souls in recent times. When Nick Clegg revealed he "regularly" sobbed while listening to music, political bruiser Ed Balls trumped him by boasting of weeping when watching the "incredibly emotional" Antiques Roadshow.
But it would be wrong to think of tears as a pitifully self-indulgent symbol of modern times. Abraham Lincoln skilfully employed tears in his oratory and, as befitted someone frequently tired and emotional, Winston Churchill loved a good blub in Parliament. The Iron Lady was made of sterner stuff until her departure from Downing Street was poignantly illustrated by the image of Margaret Thatcher indulging in a little lip-quivering in the prime ministerial limo.
Women leaders are usually damned if they do cry and damned if they don't. Aides at first feared that Hillary Clinton's tearful exchange with a voter after losing the Iowa primary to Barack Obama in 2008 would damage her but it actually played well, particularly with women voters. Tears (and implausible denials) can be emasculating, however: Edmund Muskie's presidential campaign was torpedoed in 1972 when he responded to newspaper criticisms of his wife by apparently breaking down in tears. He insisted they were melted snowflakes on his cheeks.
Every US president since Reagan has deployed a strategic tear or two (a welling-up may go down well with voters but bawling or howling is too temperamental) but it was Hillary's husband who really reinvented crying. Blubbing Bill wasn't averse to a bit of fakery as well, turning laughter into tears when he realised he was being filmed at a funeral.
Despite taking lessons from Clinton, Tony Blair was less comfortable with public tears. It was said he cried when told of the death of Dr David Kelly and Blair subsequently claimed he shed "many" tears over Iraq war dead. His alpha-male communications chief Alastair Campbell also choked back a whimper when he defended his former boss over Iraq on the Andrew Marr Show.
Gordon Brown welled up when talking on TV about the death of his baby daughter, Jennifer, but coming before the 2010 general election, this genuine display of emotion from a prime minister encumbered by his stiff image was greeted with widespread cynicism.
The most profitable political tears are probably those shed when a politician is confronted with a tragedy that is not the demise of their own careers. Livingstone has at least mastered this art in the past: he cried in public when he apologised for the slave trade during his time as mayor of London.
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An Indian mother weeps after her child died following abuse by her husband who had wanted a son.
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Debra Tate hopes that Wednesday is the last time she has to walk into a prison and argue to parole officials that Charles Manson should not be freed.
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caribnews: USGS says earth horizontally instead of vertically wiggle. Reason no major tsunami this Time. No major amt of water Displaced - @ Moshe
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caribnews: U.S. Pacific Tsunami Warning Center cancels Indian Ocean tsunami watch for areas - Reuters
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caribnews: BREAKING - Pacific Tsunami Warning Center says sea level readings to Indicate WAS generated tsunami, damage unknown - BNO News
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caribnews: Puerto Rico's economy may have bottomed out and is now "on a slow path" to recovery. http://t.co/XPombR9K
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caribnews: CNE, "The deleveraging of the economy of Puerto Rico during the last five years has been simply monumental" http://t.co/Qmhlw0M0
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caribnews: Judge imposes $ 1,500,000 bond man in Bayamón for beating a dog to death http://t.co/aK59KSym
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caribnews: The Index of Economic Activity in Puerto Rico advances in positive territory for the third consecutive month http://t.co/2dOxOV4w
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caribnews: Dr. Ricky Rossello Nevares launches multisectoral movement path to the decolonization of Puerto Rico http://t.co/Oo6wufun
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The Index of Economic Activity in Puerto Rico advances in positive territory for the third consecutive month http://ow.ly/acN0Z
Air of improvement for the Island - The New Day
ow.ly
The Economic Activity Index in positive territory BGF proceeds by third consecutive month
Air of improvement for the Island - The New Day
ow.ly
The Economic Activity Index in positive territory BGF proceeds by third consecutive month
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Dr. Ricky Rossello Nevares launches multisectoral movement path to the decolonization of Puerto Rico http://ow.ly/ad5uH
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SAN JUAN, Puerto Rico - In order to educate and continue the critical dialogue with the people about the benefits of decolonization, Dr. Ricky Rossello Nevares, with a group of citizens of various ideologies today launched a movement toward decolonization Puerto Rico through a plebiscite campaign that will include the participation of all sectors, parties and ideologies, facing the consultation process that will take place on November 6.
"Now it's Boricua!, Arose from the need to carry a palpable right message and well informed about the positive effects for all Puerto Ricans this consultation process aimed at the decolonization of Puerto Rico," explained Dr. Rossello Nevares in press conference with figures representing the movements statesman, independence and sovereigntist, among others.
The proponent of this educational movement multisectoral said the group of professionals and private citizens have joined in the effort agree that the call to the people during the consultation process is to vote NO to the colony to make a difference in the socio Island policy made clear that "just allow space for dialogue and inclusion, together with purpose and noting that even when we advocate different philosophies, we have more things that unite us, as is the genuine interest of all to take Puerto Rico to forward. "
He explained that this effort has its genesis in the petitions, meetings and conversations over the past two years has held during his visits to over 70 different villages of the island, and several states of the American nation, where citizens have shared with of all political persuasions and all have expressed and concur on the need to communicate a message is precise and accurate to the disastrous consequences of continuing the current sociopolitical archaic system that no longer serves the needs of Puerto
Rico or the people.
Therefore, "Now it's Boricua!, Is a call to decide the future of Puerto Rico in
our hands, not leave it to other decisions that we make is for Puerto Ricans, and the time to decide is now in the plebiscite of November 6, "said the leader of the educational movement and campaign for the decolonization of the island
He added that this stage is disclosed today "is simply the natural achievement effort started two years ago, and the next step is to continue with what I call the 'multiplier marquee dialogue', which will be accompanied by parallel workshops and critical thinking, great events and activities at local, national and international levels, among other initiatives. "
"Now it's Boricua!, Arose from the need to carry a palpable right message and well informed about the positive effects for all Puerto Ricans this consultation process aimed at the decolonization of Puerto Rico," explained Dr. Rossello Nevares in press conference with figures representing the movements statesman, independence and sovereigntist, among others.
The proponent of this educational movement multisectoral said the group of professionals and private citizens have joined in the effort agree that the call to the people during the consultation process is to vote NO to the colony to make a difference in the socio Island policy made clear that "just allow space for dialogue and inclusion, together with purpose and noting that even when we advocate different philosophies, we have more things that unite us, as is the genuine interest of all to take Puerto Rico to forward. "
He explained that this effort has its genesis in the petitions, meetings and conversations over the past two years has held during his visits to over 70 different villages of the island, and several states of the American nation, where citizens have shared with of all political persuasions and all have expressed and concur on the need to communicate a message is precise and accurate to the disastrous consequences of continuing the current sociopolitical archaic system that no longer serves the needs of Puerto
Rico or the people.
Therefore, "Now it's Boricua!, Is a call to decide the future of Puerto Rico in
our hands, not leave it to other decisions that we make is for Puerto Ricans, and the time to decide is now in the plebiscite of November 6, "said the leader of the educational movement and campaign for the decolonization of the island
He added that this stage is disclosed today "is simply the natural achievement effort started two years ago, and the next step is to continue with what I call the 'multiplier marquee dialogue', which will be accompanied by parallel workshops and critical thinking, great events and activities at local, national and international levels, among other initiatives. "
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 TIME |
Predicting the Latino Vote in 2012
TIME The Latino vote will matter in the 2012 election. So Republicans and Democrats say, and the cover of TIME events magazine. But just how much it will matter is not clear at This Point. Factors Remain Too many fluid. We do not know how close races in key ... and more » |
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TIME |
Predicting the Latino Vote in 2012
TIME The Latino vote will matter in the 2012 election. So say Republicans and Democrats, and even the cover of TIME magazine. But just how much it will matter is not clear at this point. Too many factors remain fluid. We don't know how close races in key ... and more » |
via latino - Google News on 4/11/12
Commentary: Mitt Romney is hurting himself with Latino voters
Kansas City Star Just as Whitman alienated Latino voters by morphing from a moderate to hard-liner on immigration, Romney's tough primary rhetoric aimed at illegal immigration is weakening him with Latino voters, damaging his chances in the general election. and more » |
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 Windy City Times |
Chicago Latino Film Festival: LGBT overview
Windy City Times by Richard Knight, Jr., for Windy City Times The Chicago Latino Film Festival (CLFF) is back for its 28th year Friday, April 13 through Thursday, April 26. The International Latino Cultural Center is the presenting organization of the fest. |
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 New York Daily News |
Charlie: Latino sweat
New York Post Charles Rangel said yesterday he will win a 22nd term, despite facing a stiff challenge from a Latino challenger in a new congressional district where a majority of residents is Hispanic. The 81-year-old Democrat, recovering from a back injury and ... Rangel Sounds Confident of Re-election While Speaking Well of ChallengerNew York Times (blog) Espaillat Hopes to Seize on Demographic Shifts in Rangel ChallengeWNYC (blog) Rangel Says Health Issues Will Not Stop Him From Running Effective CampaignDNAinfo Capital New York -NY1 -Politicker all 20 news articles » |
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 Columbus Dispatch |
Inside Latinos' America
News & Observer But what most non-Hispanics get terribly wrong when it comes to appealing to Latinos is embarrassingly obvious – Hispanics aren't monolithic. Just ask Miami Marlins manager Ozzie Guillen, who has been suspended five games for commenting about his ... Cepeda: Misreading the Hispanic voterDenver Post Editorial: Unleashing Latina power at the pollsHouston Chronicle all 5 news articles » |
via Latino Voices on HuffingtonPost.com by The Huffington Post on 4/10/12
President Barack Obama's reelection campaign is dismissing "internet fodder" surrounding a photo of his 2012 campaign staff which features many young, white faces.
The photo, which was posted on Tumblr and also accompanied a BuzzFeed article about the 2012 campaign, featured only 80 staffers -- most of whom were young and white.
Fox News ran the photo with a headline that read "Stunning Lack Of Diversity At Obama Campaign HQ" and the Daily Beast ran a blog titled "An Obama Campaign Photo That Looks Like a Young Republican Rally."
The Washington Free Beacon, which has not reported on the number of minorities at any recent GOP event to our knowledge, went as far as to count the number of "black individuals" featured on the OFA Tumblr page.
Seriously.
Glenn Beck's The Blaze said the photo was embarrassing for a president who "makes a habit out of accusing his opponents of being racist." (When did that happen?) NewsOne wrote that the room looked "as white as a klan rally," proving once again that the conversation surrounding race and President Obama is often laced with lies and hyperbole.
An Obama campaign spokesperson dismissed the online outrage in a statement to The Huffington Post:
The photo, which was posted on Tumblr and also accompanied a BuzzFeed article about the 2012 campaign, featured only 80 staffers -- most of whom were young and white.
Fox News ran the photo with a headline that read "Stunning Lack Of Diversity At Obama Campaign HQ" and the Daily Beast ran a blog titled "An Obama Campaign Photo That Looks Like a Young Republican Rally."
The Washington Free Beacon, which has not reported on the number of minorities at any recent GOP event to our knowledge, went as far as to count the number of "black individuals" featured on the OFA Tumblr page.
Seriously.
Glenn Beck's The Blaze said the photo was embarrassing for a president who "makes a habit out of accusing his opponents of being racist." (When did that happen?) NewsOne wrote that the room looked "as white as a klan rally," proving once again that the conversation surrounding race and President Obama is often laced with lies and hyperbole.
An Obama campaign spokesperson dismissed the online outrage in a statement to The Huffington Post:
"This is mere internet fodder and the picture is not an accurate representation of the diversity of staff, backgrounds and experiences that make up the Obama for America campaign team. This is a campaign built on the inclusion of all Americans and while the Democratic party casts a wide net, the GOP's extreme partisan agenda is turning away voters in droves.â€In a sarcastic post titled "Scoop: White Kids Work For Obama," Mother Jones' reporter Tim Murphy posted a photo of what a "real Young Republicans rally looks like" and criticized the Daily Beast for turning the photo into some sort of evidence to support the president's "growing race problem." If anything, he says, it's more about economics:
The reality is that any bias in weeding out volunteers is likely more of a means-test: Volunteers for political campaigns are necessarily college-age kids with enough financial backing to allow them to work full- or part-time (and overtime, in some cases) without pay and with little if any opportunity for advancement. That gives well-off white kids a boost, I suppose.Should President Obama be worried about what some conservative bloggers think of his Tumblr page? Probably not. NewsOne reported that black GOP primary voters have been "nearly nonexistent" this cycle. And his approval ratings remain high among black voters.
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 HispanicBusiness.com |
Hispanicize 2012 Gets Underway
Fox News Hispanicize 2012, an event "focused on Latino trends and trendsetters in social media, entertainment, marketing and media," got under way Tuesday in Miami. In its third year, founder Manny Ruíz is focused on creating "a symphony" in which the ... Hispanicize 2012 Kicks Off - PRNewsermediabistro.com US Hispanic spending on the upFruitnet.com Hispanicize 2012 Welcomes Laura Termini as a SpeakerHispanicBusiness.com (press release) all 6 news articles » |
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Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff with the governor of Massachusetts, which has the largest Brazilian population in the country.
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A pesar de las bondades que las nuevas generaciones de músicos han encontrado en internet, tanto a nivel de exposición como de distribución de sus canciones, Noel Gallagher afirma que la red no le ha ayudado en su desarrollo artístico, sino al contrario.
Economist Intelligence Unit: Puerto Rico
Economist Intelligence Unit: Puerto Rico
Monthly highlights
Economic growth
| (% unless otherwise indicated) | |||
| 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | |
| US GDP | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.3 |
| OECD GDP | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 |
| World GDP | 2.9 | 3.1 | 3.0 |
| World trade | 6.2 | 6.5 | 6.5 |
| Source: Economist Intelligence Unit | |||
Inflation indicators
| (% unless otherwise indicated) | |||
| 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | |
| US CPI | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 |
| OECD CPI | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.3 |
| Manufactures (measured in US$) | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.9 |
| Oil (Brent; US$/b) | 108.3 | 104.0 | 110.0 |
| Non-oil commodities (measured in US$) | -3.6 | 3.4 | 2.8 |
| Source: Economist Intelligence Unit | |||
Financial variables
| (% unless otherwise indicated) | |||
| 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | |
| US$ 3-month commercial paper rate (av; %) | 0.3 | 1.2 | 2.6 |
| ¥ 3-month money market rate (av; %) | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| ¥:US$ (av) | 81.0 | 82.0 | 83.0 |
| Rmb:US$ (av) | 6.09 | 5.98 | 5.87 |
| Source: Economist Intelligence Unit | |||
Light at the end of the tunnel for Puerto Rico - Luz al final del túnel para Puerto Rico
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April 11, 2012
April 11, 2012
Luz al final del túnel para Puerto Rico
Light at the end of the tunnel for Puerto Rico
The Economist prevé un alza en el PIB de la Isla a partir del 2012 The Economist foresees a rise in GDP of the island from 2012
La publicación destacó que un crecimiento lento en EE.UU. The publication noted that slow growth in U.S. limitará la expansión del turismo en Puerto Rico. (Archivo) limit the expansion of tourism in Puerto Rico. (File)
Por Joanisabel González / joanisabel.gonzalez@elnuevodia.com By Joanisabel Gonzalez / joanisabel.gonzalez @ elnuevodia.com
Un reporte de la Unidad de Inteligencia Económica (UIE) de la revista especializada The Economist concluyó que la economía de Puerto Rico pudo haber tocado fondo y que ahora se encuentra “en un lento camino” hacia la recuperación. A report from the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) of The Economist magazine concluded that Puerto Rico's economy may have bottomed out and is now "on a slow path" to recovery.
Según la UIE, el producto interno bruto (PIB) local crecerá 0.5% este año fiscal y 1.4% en el fiscal 2013. According to the IPA, the gross domestic product (GDP) will grow 0.5% local tax this year and 1.4% in fiscal 2013.
El reporte publicado a finales de marzo señala que la administración de Luis Fortuño se propone respaldar el giro en el desempeño económico de la Isla con varias iniciativas. The report published in late March indicates that the Fortuño administration intends to support the shift in the economic performance of the Island with several initiatives. Entre estas: la ley que otorga tratamientos contributivos especiales a la exportación de servicios ya individuos de alto caudal que establezcan en Puerto Rico una residencia legal. Among them: the law that grants special tax treatment for export of services and individuals of high flow in Puerto Rico to establish legal residency.
En el último caso, según la Ley 22 aprobada este año, los individuos no pagarán impuestos sobre los ingresos que reciban por concepto de intereses, dividendos y ganancias de capital a largo plazo. In the latter case, according to Law 22 passed this year, individuals do not pay taxes on income received from interest, dividends and capital gains long term.
La UIE también destacó la movida del Gobierno y el sector empresarial que busca aprobar la sección 933A en el Congreso federal para conceder otro tratamiento preferencial a empresas que establezcan ciertas operaciones en suelo boricua. The IPA also highlighted the move of the Government and business are looking to adopt the section 933A in Congress to grant preferential treatment to other businesses that establish certain operations on Puerto Rican soil.
Pese a la proyección positiva, la UIE advirtió que es demasiado temprano para conocer si los esfuerzos de Puerto Rico para salir de la crisis y diversificar su economía darán fruto. Despite the positive projection, the IPA said it is too early to know if Puerto Rico's efforts to overcome the crisis and diversify its economy will bear fruit.
“El ajuste fiscal mantendrá el consumo gubernamental y la inversión en niveles bajos”, dijo la UIE al recordar la fuerte dependencia de la Isla en importaciones, particularmente la gasolina, y los altos niveles de desempleo que continuarán afectando la demanda interna. "Fiscal adjustment will keep the government consumption and investment in low levels," said ISU to remember the strong dependence of the island in imports, particularly gasoline, and high levels of unemployment continue to affect domestic demand.
“Aunque la UIE ya no prevé un riesgo de recesión en Estados Unidos y proyectó un crecimiento del Producto Interno Bruto estadounidense de 1.9% en el 2012, esto es muy por debajo de la tasa de 3% que se disfrutó en el 2010. "Although the IPA provides no risk of recession in the U.S. and projected growth of U.S. gross domestic product of 1.9% in 2012, this is well below the rate of 3% that was enjoyed in 2010. Un crecimiento lento en Estados Unidos limitará la expansión del turismo en Puerto Rico y los sectores de comercio y servicios”, advirtió la firma al agregar a la lista de escollos la recesión en la zona euro y un alza súbita en los precios del crudo. A slower U.S. growth will limit the expansion of tourism in Puerto Rico and the trade and service sectors, "said the firm to add to the list of pitfalls of recession in the euro zone and a spike in oil prices.
La previsión relativamente favorable de la UIE hacia Puerto Rico supone un cambio importante en la lectura que la publicación tenía de la Isla. En años anteriores, la UIE criticó duramente a Puerto Rico por sus bajos niveles de productividad y su alto endeudamiento, entre otros desatinos. The relatively favorable forecast of the IUS to Puerto Rico is a major change in the reading that the publication was on the island in previous years, the IPA Puerto Rico harshly criticized for its low productivity and high indebtedness, among other blunders .
Según la UIE, el producto interno bruto (PIB) local crecerá 0.5% este año fiscal y 1.4% en el fiscal 2013. According to the IPA, the gross domestic product (GDP) will grow 0.5% local tax this year and 1.4% in fiscal 2013.
El reporte publicado a finales de marzo señala que la administración de Luis Fortuño se propone respaldar el giro en el desempeño económico de la Isla con varias iniciativas. The report published in late March indicates that the Fortuño administration intends to support the shift in the economic performance of the Island with several initiatives. Entre estas: la ley que otorga tratamientos contributivos especiales a la exportación de servicios ya individuos de alto caudal que establezcan en Puerto Rico una residencia legal. Among them: the law that grants special tax treatment for export of services and individuals of high flow in Puerto Rico to establish legal residency.
En el último caso, según la Ley 22 aprobada este año, los individuos no pagarán impuestos sobre los ingresos que reciban por concepto de intereses, dividendos y ganancias de capital a largo plazo. In the latter case, according to Law 22 passed this year, individuals do not pay taxes on income received from interest, dividends and capital gains long term.
La UIE también destacó la movida del Gobierno y el sector empresarial que busca aprobar la sección 933A en el Congreso federal para conceder otro tratamiento preferencial a empresas que establezcan ciertas operaciones en suelo boricua. The IPA also highlighted the move of the Government and business are looking to adopt the section 933A in Congress to grant preferential treatment to other businesses that establish certain operations on Puerto Rican soil.
Pese a la proyección positiva, la UIE advirtió que es demasiado temprano para conocer si los esfuerzos de Puerto Rico para salir de la crisis y diversificar su economía darán fruto. Despite the positive projection, the IPA said it is too early to know if Puerto Rico's efforts to overcome the crisis and diversify its economy will bear fruit.
“El ajuste fiscal mantendrá el consumo gubernamental y la inversión en niveles bajos”, dijo la UIE al recordar la fuerte dependencia de la Isla en importaciones, particularmente la gasolina, y los altos niveles de desempleo que continuarán afectando la demanda interna. "Fiscal adjustment will keep the government consumption and investment in low levels," said ISU to remember the strong dependence of the island in imports, particularly gasoline, and high levels of unemployment continue to affect domestic demand.
“Aunque la UIE ya no prevé un riesgo de recesión en Estados Unidos y proyectó un crecimiento del Producto Interno Bruto estadounidense de 1.9% en el 2012, esto es muy por debajo de la tasa de 3% que se disfrutó en el 2010. "Although the IPA provides no risk of recession in the U.S. and projected growth of U.S. gross domestic product of 1.9% in 2012, this is well below the rate of 3% that was enjoyed in 2010. Un crecimiento lento en Estados Unidos limitará la expansión del turismo en Puerto Rico y los sectores de comercio y servicios”, advirtió la firma al agregar a la lista de escollos la recesión en la zona euro y un alza súbita en los precios del crudo. A slower U.S. growth will limit the expansion of tourism in Puerto Rico and the trade and service sectors, "said the firm to add to the list of pitfalls of recession in the euro zone and a spike in oil prices.
La previsión relativamente favorable de la UIE hacia Puerto Rico supone un cambio importante en la lectura que la publicación tenía de la Isla. En años anteriores, la UIE criticó duramente a Puerto Rico por sus bajos niveles de productividad y su alto endeudamiento, entre otros desatinos. The relatively favorable forecast of the IUS to Puerto Rico is a major change in the reading that the publication was on the island in previous years, the IPA Puerto Rico harshly criticized for its low productivity and high indebtedness, among other blunders .
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