IRREPARABLE ECONOMÍA DEL ELA
Irreparable economy ELA
Economists see no real evidence of structural changes in the short term
Puerto Rico lost the ability to get out of the economic stagnation that is located and there is no economic indicator which shows signs of change, several economists interviewed assured.
Worse, all agreed that it is impossible to predict when it will experience even a small economic recovery, as noted there is no actual recovery plan, the economy grows and it looks like it will halt. The recession continues and gone are the predictions of a double dip recession as projected six months ago, by December 2012.
Economist Luis Benitez said that talk of a "double dip recession" is a mistaken premise, as it exists for the country should have reflected a specific recovery and this never happened. He said there were months where they endured the fall, or the speed slowed, "but never stopped falling as many have interpreted".
According to the economist Santos Negron, the island is in "secular stagnation" where not peel or shows signs of recovery. He said that for the past years it was assumed that the economy of Puerto Rico showed changes into positive territory before the receipt of various federal financial aid and the effect of the bond issues were made. However, that did not happen because the economic productive base of the country was too weak to allow the takeoff.
"What is at issue is a structural problem rooted in the weakening of the productive base, which has increased with the weakening and loss of manufacturing jobs. The situation is so strong that there is no big push any stimulus that has been reacted, which is complicated by the government's budget problem. You need to put the house in order to avoid degradation and to return to the markets and revitalize the economy. Endogenously, the country can not get out of the economic situation, no recording mechanisms and the tax base is not the alternative because you can do is further weaken the economy and prolong and deepen the recession, "he said Negron.
For the economist Argaeus Quiñones, the situation in the island is a cumulative economic contraction of over 10%, accompanied by local fiscal crisis and a global recession. He said that the government has lost the ability to fire the economic engines. He stated that "there is light at the end of the road", what he said is unfortunate, started from 2006 to 2012 the island received economic stimulus federal, and local bond issues over $ 30,000 million. He also said that the money was not enough to lift the stalemate in Puerto Rico who was nevertheless approved a tax reform that reduced revenues to the Treasury $ 1.200 million, which means aggravated the situation.
Quinones added that the country's debt levels, which today represent 100% of gross domestic product and a pattern of an economy that is not growing, are two elements that keep the island unable to get out of the recession that the clothes in a eight years. "It is necessary to achieve political and social consensus country that does not put more burdens on employees and not touch his benefits were acquired, which is achieved tighten the oversight agency for the most wealthy and achieve a transparent government, where the citizen is comfortable with providing for the end of the day is what they do with their money. The government needs growth strategies "recommended Quinones.
Also, Benitez agreed that the problem here is structural where the economic model wore the most. Emphasized to be necessary to restructure the economic model. "Since 2006 we have been out of recession for lack of focus. We must stabilize northern economic development we want for the country. Today there is no consistency, the country needs to agree, like all economic sectors. It is a painful process by which you will have to spend to achieve the consensus of the country, which will take two to three years, "he said.
As alternatives to facilitate this process, Benitez mentioned the need to be disciplined in the repayment of the debts, not to false assumptions and be consistent in the audit of the collections.
Worse, all agreed that it is impossible to predict when it will experience even a small economic recovery, as noted there is no actual recovery plan, the economy grows and it looks like it will halt. The recession continues and gone are the predictions of a double dip recession as projected six months ago, by December 2012.
Economist Luis Benitez said that talk of a "double dip recession" is a mistaken premise, as it exists for the country should have reflected a specific recovery and this never happened. He said there were months where they endured the fall, or the speed slowed, "but never stopped falling as many have interpreted".
According to the economist Santos Negron, the island is in "secular stagnation" where not peel or shows signs of recovery. He said that for the past years it was assumed that the economy of Puerto Rico showed changes into positive territory before the receipt of various federal financial aid and the effect of the bond issues were made. However, that did not happen because the economic productive base of the country was too weak to allow the takeoff.
"What is at issue is a structural problem rooted in the weakening of the productive base, which has increased with the weakening and loss of manufacturing jobs. The situation is so strong that there is no big push any stimulus that has been reacted, which is complicated by the government's budget problem. You need to put the house in order to avoid degradation and to return to the markets and revitalize the economy. Endogenously, the country can not get out of the economic situation, no recording mechanisms and the tax base is not the alternative because you can do is further weaken the economy and prolong and deepen the recession, "he said Negron.
For the economist Argaeus Quiñones, the situation in the island is a cumulative economic contraction of over 10%, accompanied by local fiscal crisis and a global recession. He said that the government has lost the ability to fire the economic engines. He stated that "there is light at the end of the road", what he said is unfortunate, started from 2006 to 2012 the island received economic stimulus federal, and local bond issues over $ 30,000 million. He also said that the money was not enough to lift the stalemate in Puerto Rico who was nevertheless approved a tax reform that reduced revenues to the Treasury $ 1.200 million, which means aggravated the situation.
Quinones added that the country's debt levels, which today represent 100% of gross domestic product and a pattern of an economy that is not growing, are two elements that keep the island unable to get out of the recession that the clothes in a eight years. "It is necessary to achieve political and social consensus country that does not put more burdens on employees and not touch his benefits were acquired, which is achieved tighten the oversight agency for the most wealthy and achieve a transparent government, where the citizen is comfortable with providing for the end of the day is what they do with their money. The government needs growth strategies "recommended Quinones.
Also, Benitez agreed that the problem here is structural where the economic model wore the most. Emphasized to be necessary to restructure the economic model. "Since 2006 we have been out of recession for lack of focus. We must stabilize northern economic development we want for the country. Today there is no consistency, the country needs to agree, like all economic sectors. It is a painful process by which you will have to spend to achieve the consensus of the country, which will take two to three years, "he said.
As alternatives to facilitate this process, Benitez mentioned the need to be disciplined in the repayment of the debts, not to false assumptions and be consistent in the audit of the collections.
ESPANTA LOS ‘PÁJAROS DE MAL AGÜERO’ BACÓ
Contrario a expertos, asegura que la economía criolla reflejará un repunte positivo a partir de septiembre
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